Bitcoin Supply Metric Flashes First Buy Signal Since 2022
A key Bitcoin supply indicator just printed its first buy signal since November 2022, but analysts warn the bottom may not be in yet.
A Bitcoin supply metric just fired off its first buy signal in over two years — and if you were trading during the 2022 bear market, you know exactly how significant that is. The last time this indicator triggered was November 2022, right around the FTX collapse lows. That context alone should have your attention.
The signal is pointing toward a potential end to the current bear market cycle, which analysts are framing as a 2026 bear market bottom scenario. That's the bullish read. But here's the part you can't ignore: the same analysis explicitly warns that BTC price could still go lower from here. A buy signal doesn't mean buy *right now* — it means the setup is forming.
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Think of it like a spring compressing. Supply dynamics shifting in this direction historically precede major recoveries, but the timeline is rarely clean. Capitulation can drag on. Weak hands get shaken out multiple times before the real move starts. The 2022 signal played out over weeks before Bitcoin finally bottomed and started its climb toward the 2024 all-time highs.
For active traders, this is the kind of data point that goes on the watchlist, not the trigger finger. Risk management still applies. If you're dollar-cost averaging, this gives you a framework for conviction. If you're trying to catch the exact low, the analysis itself is telling you that's still a gamble. The signal is a green light for paying attention — not a guaranteed floor.
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