June Import Prices Surge, Defying Disinflation Hopes
US import prices jumped 0.3% in June vs. a -0.7% forecast, pushing the year-over-year gain to a near two-year high.
Inflation isn't dead — it just moved to the import aisle. June import prices came in at +0.3%, blowing past the -0.7% consensus estimate in a big way. That's not a rounding error; that's the market getting caught completely offside.
Zoom out and the picture gets uglier. The year-over-year import price increase hit 7.1%, the hottest reading since August 2022. That's the kind of number that reframes the whole "disinflation is winning" narrative that bulls have been leaning on. When CPI and PPI show cooling and then import prices punch back like this, you don't get a clean story — you get a messy one.
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Export prices added another wrinkle, dropping 0.6% against an expected -0.4% decline. The prior month's reading was also revised down. So you've got import costs creeping higher while export prices soften — that's a squeeze on the trade balance and a headache for anyone betting on a Fed pivot coming fast.
Oil is in the mix here too. Brent crude pushed up to $86.20 and WTI sat at $81 around the time of the release, near session highs. Energy feeds directly into import prices, so if crude stays elevated, this print isn't a one-month blip — it's a trend that keeps the Fed on edge heading into the back half of the year.
Bottom line: don't let one cool CPI print make you complacent. Import prices are screaming that pipeline inflation pressure is still very much alive. Trade accordingly. Continue reading at Forexlive.
