NY Empire State Manufacturing Crushes July Forecast at 15.6
July Empire State index surged to 15.6, nearly double the 8.8 estimate, as new orders and shipments posted sharp gains.
New York manufacturing just gave the bears a gut punch. The Empire State Manufacturing Index clocked in at 15.6 for July, blowing past the consensus estimate of 8.8 and more than doubling last month's already-beaten reading of 5.7. This is the kind of beat that moves markets and reframes the macro narrative fast.
Dig into the internals and it gets even better. New orders exploded to 22.2 from just 3.5 the prior month — that's not noise, that's a real demand signal. Shipments jumped to 24.4 from 8.6. Employment ticked up to 11.4 from 9.6. The factory floor in the New York Fed's district is humming louder than almost anyone expected.
Read more Hassett Says No Reason to Hike Rates After Cool CPI Print →
The inflation picture inside the report is actually the nuanced part. Prices paid cooled to 52.3 from 61.0 — still elevated, but moving in the right direction. Prices received also eased to 27.6 from 31.4. That combo of stronger activity plus softer input costs is the sweet spot manufacturers — and Fed watchers — want to see.
Forward guidance from the survey stays constructive. The six-month outlook sits at 27.9, slightly off last month's 30.1 but still solidly positive. Forward new orders edged up to 33.2. The one soft spot: forward delivery times and unfilled orders both flipped negative, suggesting some caution about the pipeline further out. Worth watching but not a red flag yet.
Bottom line — this print supports a resilient US economy narrative heading into the next Fed meeting. If you were leaning on weakness data to justify a dovish rate-cut trade, today's number just made that harder. Continue reading at Forexlive.
