Post-Midterm Rally History Points to S&P 500 Gains Ahead
History says relief is coming for beaten-down stocks after midterms. The S&P 500 has averaged 15.5% returns in the nine months following Election Day since 1950.
You're staring at your portfolio and it hurts. But here's the trade you need to know about: the nine months after midterm Election Day have historically been some of the best on the calendar for U.S. stocks, regardless of which party wins.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of 15.5% in the window stretching from Election Day through June 30 of the following year. That's not a rounding error — that's a legitimate, repeatable seasonal pattern that should be on every trader's radar right now.
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The beauty of this setup is the bipartisan nature of it. It doesn't matter if your candidate wins or loses. Markets have historically exhaled after the uncertainty of a midterm cycle clears, and money has flowed back into equities with conviction. Political gridlock, which midterms often produce, has actually been a quiet friend to Wall Street.
If you've been sitting on cash waiting for a signal, history is basically handing you one. That doesn't mean you go all-in recklessly — drawdowns can still happen within any bullish window — but the weight of seven decades of data is leaning hard in one direction. Position accordingly, manage your risk, and let the calendar work for you.
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