Trump Kills Iran Deal, Oil Spikes 6% as Risk-Off Takes Hold
Trump scrapped the US-Iran memorandum of understanding at NATO, sending WTI crude surging 6% while equities and gold slid.
Trump just lit a match under oil markets. At the NATO summit in Ankara, the US president declared the ceasefire memorandum with Iran officially dead — calling the country "dirty players" and "scum" — and that's all crude needed to rip higher. WTI jumped 6% to $74.70, Brent crude surged 5.5% to $78.30, and the geopolitical risk premium is back in a big way.
This isn't just an oil story. The broader risk mood cratered fast. European stock indices are down more than 2% across the board. S&P 500 futures are off 1% and Nasdaq futures are sliding 1.4%, compounding losses from the session before. When Trump blows up a deal at a NATO summit, nobody's buying the dip right away.
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Gold, usually your go-to safe haven, is actually getting hammered here — down 1.4% to $4,050. Why? Rate hike bets are climbing alongside the geopolitical tension, and that combo is crushing precious metals. Silver is down 2.3% to $58.65. Ten-year Treasury yields moved up 5 bps to 4.58%, threatening the June high, which tells you the bond market is pricing in more Fed hawkishness, not less.
There's more noise in the mix too. Trump threatened to cut trade ties with Spain over NATO defense spending, and China reportedly lifted restrictions on refined fuel exports through the rest of July — a move that could cap some of oil's upside if supply flows increase. ECB's Escriva, for his part, stuck to the classic central bank non-answer: all options on the table, meeting by meeting. On FX, the dollar is firmer but barely. NZD is the day's outperformer, largely thanks to a hawkish RBNZ earlier, with NZD/USD up 0.4% to 0.5700.
Bottom line: geopolitics is driving the bus today. Watch crude, watch yields, and keep your stops tight. Continue reading at Forexlive.
