UK GDP Beats, US Retail Sales and Jobs Data Up Next
UK economy eked out 0.1% growth in May while traders brace for US retail sales and jobless claims data dropping Thursday.
The UK kicked off the session with a modest win. May GDP came in at 0.1% monthly growth, carried mostly by services. The three-month rolling figure hit 0.7%, topping the 0.5% consensus. Don't get too excited though — the Bank of England isn't changing its playbook. Rate hike by year-end is still the base case, and this print doesn't move that needle.
Now the real action shifts stateside. US Retail Sales are expected to cool hard — 0.2% versus a scorching 0.9% prior reading. Strip out autos and the number actually goes negative, with the ex-autos measure forecast at -0.1% versus 0.8% prior. The Control Group, the cleanest read on consumer spending, is seen at 0.5% after 0.7% last time. Big slowdown on paper, but here's the thing: retail sales are noisy. The market tends to knee-jerk and then fade the move. Trade accordingly.
Read more T. Rowe Price Launches First Multi-Token Crypto ETF →
Jobless claims round out the data slate. Initial claims are penciled in at 217K versus 215K prior, and continuing claims at 1,817K versus 1,814K. Basically flat. The US labor market is still tight and giving the Fed zero reason to pivot. Nothing to see here unless the number shocks meaningfully in either direction.
On the Fed speaker front, two hawks hit the tape Thursday afternoon. Logan speaks at 16:30 GMT and is a voter — that one matters. Schmid follows at 17:25 GMT but has no vote this cycle. Watch Logan's tone closely for any fresh signals on the rate path heading into the next FOMC meeting.
Continue reading at Forexlive.
