US-Iran Tensions Reset Again as Oil Climbs 1% on Uncertainty
Trump signals Iran wants a deal even as strikes continue. WTI crude pops 1% to $74.30 with Hormuz still snarled.
Here we go again. Trump called the ceasefire "over," then said he doesn't expect a new war, then turned around and said "anything that happens will be over quickly" — all while the US conducted fresh strikes on Iran overnight and Iran hit back at US bases in the Gulf. By morning, the headline du jour was Trump claiming Iran is desperate to cut a deal. Classic playbook.
This is the exact same script from round one. When things spiral past his comfort zone, Trump reframes the narrative — suddenly the other side is the one blinking first. It worked before. Both sides quietly signed a memorandum of understanding, tensions cooled, markets exhaled. That agreement didn't hold, and now we're back at square one with the reset button firmly mashed.
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The Strait of Hormuz is still the wildcard you need to watch. Yes, traffic has ticked up slightly in recent weeks. But "slightly more traffic" is a long way from normal, and with hostilities flaring again, maritime insurers are not about to ease those sky-high premiums. Shipping companies aren't rushing through the strait — even if Iran signals flexibility, which right now they aren't doing.
Oil is already sniffing out the opportunity. WTI crude added another 1% today, hitting $74.30. That follows four straight weeks of price declines, so this conflict could be exactly the catalyst that sparks a real summer rebound. If talks stay dead and Hormuz stays choked, that upside pressure isn't going away anytime soon. Keep your eye on energy positions — this situation is far from resolved.
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